Road to Rio

Rio Preview – All Around Finals

My final preview before Rio!  In exactly one week, the women will be competing throughout qualifying!  It’s so exciting that it’s this close.

D-Scores

 Gymnast  Vault  Bars  Beam  Floor Total
 Simone Biles (USA)  6.3  6.1  6.8  6.9  26.1
 Aly Raisman (USA)  6.3  5.9  6.5  6.6  25.3
 Shang Chunsong (CHN)  5.0  6.7  6.7  6.7  25.1
 Seda Tutkhalyan (RUS)  5.8  6.5  6.7  5.9  24.9
 Claudia Fragapane (GBR)  5.8  5.9  6.7  6.5  24.9
 Laurie Hernandez (USA)  5.8  6.4  6.4  6.1  24.7
 Angelina Melnikova (RUS)  5.8  6.4  6.2  6.3  24.7
 Wang Yan (CHN)  6.2  5.5  6.5  6.3  24.5
 Gabby Douglas (USA)  5.8  6.5  6.3  6.0  24.5
 Giulia Steingruber (SUI)  6.2  5.8  6.0  6.4  24.4
 Ellie Downie (GBR)  5.8  6.3  6.1  6.1  24.3
 Isabela Onyshko (CAN)  5.8  6.3  6.5  5.7  24.3
 Rebeca Andrade (BRA)  6.3  6.2  5.9  5.8  24.2
 Aliya Mustafina (RUS)  5.8  6.5  6.1  5.8  24.2
 Vanessa Ferrari (ITA)  5.8  5.8  6.3  6.2  24.1
 Asuka Teramoto (JPN)  6.2  5.9  6.0  5.8  23.9
 Jessica Lopez (VEN)  5.8  6.4  6.1  5.6  23.9
 Ellie Black (CAN)  5.8  5.8  6.4  5.8  23.8
 Flavia Saraiva (BRA)  5.8  5.7  6.5  5.8  23.7
 Ruby Harrold (GBR)  5.8  6.6  5.6  5.7  23.7
Eythora Thorsdottir (NED)  5.8  5.9  6.2  5.8  23.7
 Mai Murakami (JPN)  5.8  5.6  5.7  6.5  23.6

These are all the difficulty scores that have been competed this year that I could find above a 23.50.  Of course the first thing to note is how dominate Simone Biles is here, who is nearly a full point over second place Aly Raisman who will probably not even compete all-around in Rio.  Third place is Chinese superstar Shang Chunsong.  Could you imagine how she’d be with a harder vault?  A DTY would put her 0.2 behind Biles, and a DTT or a Rudi like her teammate Wang Yan would put her in first.  It’s quite a shame she only vaults a FTY.

Next is Seda Tutkhalyan and Claudia Fragapane who are both relying on high difficulty without the best execution or consistency to get them their scores.  Then there is a tie between Laurie Hernandez who I’m going to bet at the moment will be the second all-arounder in finals and Angelina Melnikova, who has a slight hamstring issue and is unsure what level routines she’ll be competing.

Next in line is the inconsistent Wang Yan and Gabby Douglas.  On a good day, both of these gymnasts could be one of the best in the World, but on other days their inconsistencies would place them middle of the back or worse. After them is Giulia Steingruber who qualified second last year in Glasgow.  Watch out though, if she does her FHS 2/1 in all-around finals, her total would go up 0.6 and rank her right behind Shang Chunsong.  Then there is Isabela Onyshko and Ellie Downie, both who could really surprise the all-around standings depending on how well they hit.

Top Brazilian all-arounder Rebeca Andrade is after them, tied with Aliya Mustafina.  Don’t be surprised if both of these gymnasts show up with a few more tenths on bars and floor. This next one is a surprise to me, Vanessa Ferrari has comeback rather strong since her injury last year and could be in the top group.

Now dropping to difficulty scores below 24, you have veteran Jessica Lopez and Japanese star Asuka Teramoto.  Teramoto especially had several costly errors in Glasgow last year and still placed ninth.  With hit routines, she would have placed fifth so she could also surprise and qualify into the top group.

Ellie Black is ranked a tenth below them, and qualified fourth into finals last year.  Then you have the other Brazilian superstar Flavia Saraiva who has been showing individual upgrades recently so her difficulty total in Brazil is yet to be seen.  The third British athlete, Ruby Harrold is next and tied with the best gymnast from the Netherlands, Eythora Thorsdottir.  Last on the list is Mai Murakami who has been dominating Japanese domestic competitions this year.

I’m not going to do be doing a total score for the all-around since the scores vary so much between some domestic and international competitions, and this is magnified when adding four events together.  I’m also afraid of doing predictions since this field is SO OPEN after Simone.  If I was to bet on the top three, I’d say Biles, Hernandez, Shang Chunsong in that order but a number of these women could surprise here and it’s nearly impossible for me to place a certain eight in order.

 

 

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5 thoughts on “Rio Preview – All Around Finals

  1. A bit crazy Aly Raisman has the 2nd highest D-value in the world, and just consistently hit 16 out of her last 16 routines, and she’ll probably get screwed out of even trying for all-around.

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  2. Aly R. did AA in podium training today & Laurie H. sat out UB rotation. AA for US is Simone, Aly and GD. Go Simone & Aly!!

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  3. Great for Aly, hard on Laurie. They both should be in AA. If Aly or Laurie had placed 4th at Nationals and 7th at Trials, the AA lineups would have been decided then by the top 3 with no complaints. No one would even be arguing they should do AA, regardless of whether they looked fine later in podium training.

    Of course, if Aly or Laurie had placed that way at Nationals and Trials, they would be alternates.

    Still crazy favoritism for Gabby. And the rumor that Simone might end up doing team final bars because Laurie won’t have a prelims under her belt just disqualifies one of the main objections to Skinner being on the team.

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  4. Not Gabby’s fault if she’s getting favoritism. The above came off too harsh, but the arguments for her being on the team or doing AA just don’t hold up if you carry them all the way out. If she needs to do bars in team prelims, Laurie needs to do them even more. If Laurie’s not doing bars at all, Simone has to, which means Mykayla, or even Ragan or Maggie, could have been on the team.

    Too bad they didn’t simply take Locklear. A better bars lineup than we have now and no All-Around conundrum.

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