Road to Rio

Team E-Score Analysis

Yesterday, I went over all of the difficulty scores for each team going into Rio.  Now today is going to be a quick review over execution scores.  Execution scores can be hard to map out because they are a lot more inconsistent than difficulty scores.  So I’m using two competitions to hopefully get a more accurate picture of how the teams would stack up here.  The first is from qualifying at 2015 Worlds, and then the second is either from team finals in 2015 or the test event in 2016 depending on who qualified for what.  I added up each execution score and then divided it by however many gymnasts competed to get an average E-Score, and then I took the average of each team from their two competitions.

Country   2015 Worlds TQ 2015 Worlds TF / 2016 Test Event  Total Average
 USA  8.4488  8.8615  8.6551
 Russia  8.5071  8.3720  8.4396
 Italy  8.3509  8.3914  8.3712
 Great Britain  8.1814  8.4817  8.3316
 Netherlands  8.3126  8.2775  8.2951
 Belgium  8.2840  8.2952  8.2896
 Japan  8.2081  8.3655  8.2868
 France  8.2826  8.2200  8.2513
 Germany  8.1480  8.3005  8.2243
 Canada  8.2056  8.2164  8.2110
 China  7.9435  8.4553  8.1994
 Brazil  8.0597  8.2504  8.1551

What’s really surprising about this is how far China is down on the list here.  Second to last, with only Brazil behind them.  Another surprising thing is how high Russia is.  I would have thought with all their falls in team finals that they would be a lot lower than this but their other events were high enough to not affect them much.  Of course the Americans are first here, their consistency is really their best attribute as a team.  They haven’t counted a fall in a team final situation since 2010 and their team prelims score here was only as low as it was because of Brenna Dowell’s bar routine.

So for the final set of numbers, I am taking the average E-Score, multiplying it by 12 which is the amount of routines done in team finals, and then adding it to the D-Score total I posted yesterday.

  1. USA – 181.161
  2. CHN – 176.093
  3. RUS – 175.775
  4. GBR – 174.679
  5. JPN – 172.442
  6. ITA – 171.954
  7. BRA – 170.161
  8. CAN – 170.132
  9. GER – 169.392
  10. NED – 169.041
  11. FRA – 167.616
  12. BEL – 167.375

For comparison, here are the scores received for each team in team finals last year.

  1. USA – 181.338
  2. CHN – 176.164
  3. GBR – 172.380
  4. RUS – 171.964
  5. JPN – 169.887
  6. CAN – 167.697
  7. ITA – 167.597
  8. NED – 162.730

America and China are spot on, with barely any difference from the average received above.  But bronze is where it gets interesting.  By taking the averages, Russia is third with a 175.775, but bronze last year went to Great Britain with a 171.964.  Looking at that, three teams are easily capable of beating that score (Russia, Great Britain, and Japan) and one team is close to that (Italy).  There were also three scores in the 167s or lower in team finals last year, and every country is capable of a score in the 167s or higher so this really proves that nearly any of the teams could make the finals depending on who is hitting well in prelims.

 

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3 thoughts on “Team E-Score Analysis

  1. Pingback: 4for4 Rio Team predictions – Gymnastics Coaching.com

    • Canada’s are indeed too low after I found results from their Trials but I went over Brazil’s a few times and they are all up to date with what they’ve competed so far.

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