Road to Rio

Final Team D-Score Analysis

It’s here!  With this post, I’ll finally be finished with the comparison of each teams difficulty scores for Rio.  If you have followed along for the past couple of weeks, you’ve seen me go over each teams difficulty score total, and now it’s time to put it all together.

By Events

First lets go over how each team stack up on each event.

Vault

  1. USA – 18.4
  2. JPN – 18.2
  3. BRA – 17.9 / RUS – 17.9
  4. CHN – 17.8
  5. CAN – 17.4 / GBR – 17.4 / ITA – 17.4
  6. GER – 16.2
  7. NED – 16.1
  8. FRA – 15.8
  9. BEL – 15.0

This is where the USA will hopefully start their domination of the team event.  Surprisingly, Japan has the second strongest vault rotation due to the two Rudis they have from Sae Miyakawa and Asuka Teramoto.  Russia and Brazil are each counting on one Amanar which bumps them up above the fifth place teams that are counting all DTYs.  China has one Rudi from Wang Yan though she might not be doing that and she might be doing a DTT which would bump them down to 17.6.  After that, the teams drop off steeply due them having to count 1-1/2 twisting Yurchenkos and FTYs.

Bars

  1. CHN – 20.6
  2. GBR – 19.8
  3. GER – 19.7
  4. USA – 19.6 / RUS – 19.6
  5. BEL – 19.3
  6. FRA – 18.8
  7. BRA – 18.1
  8. CAN – 17.9 / JPN – 17.9
  9. NED – 17.8
  10. ITA – 17.7

Once the USA takes the lead after the first rotation, China has a chance to take it back here.  Their difficulty score total is a full point over the Americans, thanks to routines like Fan Yilin’s 7.1 which is the highest in the world on any event currently (tied with the Produnova vault).  China’s lowest D-Score is a 6.7 from Shang Chunsong which happens to be America’s highest from Madison Kocian.  The US will hopefully depend on high execution here to not let China take over much of a lead.

Great Britain really puts themselves into medal contention with their routines on this event, which hopefully they have improved their consistency on because if they don’t hit here they will most likely stay out of the medals.  Germany has two outstanding bar workers with Elisabeth Seitz and Sophie Scheder and they’ll be depending on this event to make team finals.  Russia’s once advantage over the US on this event is now equalized with difficulty here, but if they hit they will most likely score above them due to execution.

Beam

  1. CHN – 19.9
  2. USA – 19.7
  3. RUS – 19.0
  4. NED – 18.8 / BRA – 18.8
  5. CAN – 18.7 / GBR – 18.7
  6. ITA – 18.6
  7. GER – 17.9
  8. JPN – 17.8
  9. FRA – 17.7
  10. BEL – 17.3

China once again takes the lead here, but they will most likely be losing to the Americans over all due to execution issues.  All the Americans need to do is hit here and they will be fine.  Russia is the closest third but is still nearly a point behind.  They are also counting on a inconsistent routine from Seda Tutkhalyan which could be either one of the highest scoring beam routines of the team final, or one of the lowest.  Netherlands is strong here due to veteran Sanne Wevers and newcomer Eythora Thorsdottir who both made event finals on the event last year.  They are tied with Brazil who is relying on star gymnast Flavia Saraiva to deliver a strong score here.

Canada and Great Britain are close in fifth, but both teams have suffered from some consistency issues in the past so they’ll be hoping to just survive this event instead of making ground here.  Possible bronze team contender Japan is in eighth but they still have routines from gymnasts like Asuka Teramoto who made finals in 2014 and could do well on this event if they can stay on.

Floor

  1. USA – 19.6
  2. CHN – 19.4
  3. JPN – 19.1
  4. GBR – 18.8
  5. RUS – 18.0
  6. ITA – 17.8
  7. BRA – 17.5
  8. CAN – 17.6
  9. GER – 16.9
  10. NED – 16.8
  11. FRA – 16.3 / BEL – 16.3

The Americans will really have a huge advantage here.  Not only do they have a 0.2 difficulty advantage, but they are consistent for the most part and have the best execution on the event.  China is close with their difficulty scores but rely on hitting difficult turns and hard combinations that have proven to be inconsistent to them in the past.  Japan is third here, having 2013 finalist Mai Murakami and 2015 finalist Sae Miyakawa is really helping them here.  Great Britain is a close fourth thanks to former event finalists Ellie Downie and Claudia Fragapane.  Then after a big drop in difficulty score is Russia who will be missing multiple floor medalist Ksenia Afanasyeva.  Italy is close to them due to Vanessa Ferrari and Erika Fasana but we need to see if they can hit like they did earlier in the quad to see if their difficulty will pay off.

Total

  1. CHN – 77.7
  2. USA – 77.3
  3. GBR – 74.7
  4. RUS – 74.5
  5. JPN – 73.0
  6. BRA – 72.3
  7. CAN – 71.6
  8. ITA – 71.5
  9. GER – 70.7
  10. NED – 69.5
  11. FRA – 68.6
  12. BEL – 67.9

There seems to be an obvious race for gold between China and America, and then an obvious run for bronze between Great Britain and Russia.  Of course, this counts only if they can hit all of their routines.  China and America do have some cushion over third place thanks to their nearly three point advantage, but the margin is a lot closer between the bronze favorites and then fifth ranked Japan.  The Japanese Federation has stated a team medal is the goal for them, so look for them to be at their strongest in this competition.  Home team Brazil is in sixth, but would need mistakes from Russia, Great Britain, and Japan for them to sneak onto the medal stand.

Seventh ranked Canada and eighth ranked Italy have a small cushion over ninth ranked Germany so they should be able to make team finals if they can both hit.  After that, you have Netherlands, France, and Belgium all lacking in difficulty to be favorites to make team finals but will be hoping their execution and consistency will be enough for them to sneak into the competition.

And there we go!  The final difficulty score analysis for the team competition.  I will trying to do a rough estimate of execution scores in the following days to see how that might affect final placements.  Also in these two weeks before podium training starts I will be posting coverage of possible event finalists due to their difficulty scores as well.

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