2016 Competitions / Road to Rio

US Women’s Olympic Trial Preview – Floor

Final event review before the event starts tonight!  This first list is the average of all scores these gymnasts have earned this year.  The competitions include American Cup, Jesolo, Pacific Rim, Classics, and Nationals.  The number in parenthesis is how many times they have competed floor this year.

  1. Simone Biles – 16.067 (3)
  2. Aly Raisman – 15.425 (6)
  3. Laurie Hernandez – 14.725 (4)
  4. Gabby Douglas – 14.626 (5)
  5. Madison Kocian – 14.550 (2)
  6. Mykayla Skinner – 14.483 (3)
  7. Christina Desiderio – 14.467 (3)

Simone is so much ahead of the others, it’s unreal.  An average of around six tenths more than the reigning Olympic champion who has improved since 2012.  She hasn’t scored under a 16 between the three competitions she’s done floor this year in.

And Aly is really ahead of third place.  Her floor contributes nearly as much to team USA as Madison brings on bars.  She hasn’t scored under 15 this year either.

These two routines are really where the Americans separate themselves from the rest of the World.  Their vault lineup with two Amanars and on DTY is only around 0.5 more most other countries.  Their bars are their weakest event and will most likely be beaten by countries like Russia and China.  They have consistency working for them on beam where they’ll most likely win that event in Rio, but looking at scores they really aren’t that much ahead.  But then floor they can pull away so easily with Simone and Aly.  Most teams will be struggling to get three routines that go above 14.5 and Simone & Aly will bring 2.5 ahead of other countries here if they hit to their best capabilities.

In third place is Laurie Hernandez, who is a good tenth ahead of Olympic all-around champion Gabby Douglas.  And surprisingly Madison Kocian comes in fifth, less than a tenth behind Gabby.

Rounding out the last two spots are Mykayla Skinner, former fourth place finisher at 2014 Worlds on the event, and Christina Desiderio a new senior this year from the famed Parkettes club.  These two are really close to each other, and I know some were surprised that Desiderio was included in Trials but it’s because of this event that she is.

This next list is the average after removing the best and worst score.  If a gymnast only had three scores, than the median score is taken.  If a gymnast only has two scores, then her average is taken again for this list.

  1. Simone Biles – 16.05
  2. Aly Raisman – 15.45
  3. Laurie Hernandez – 14.80
  4. Mykayla Skinner – 14.70
  5. Gabby Douglas – 14.61
  6. Madison Kocian – 14.55
  7. Christina Desiderio – 14.45

The top two gymnasts barely have their average changed, it really shows their consistency on that event.  An interesting change is Skinner going from sixth to fourth.  She gets to drop a 13.85 from Jesolo which really killed her average in the above list.  Hernandez’s average goes up too, she gets to drop a 14.35 from the same event as Skinner.

This last list is just using the gymnasts best scores throughout they year to see the potential of what they could possibly score.

  1. Simone Biles – 16.100
  2. Aly Raisman – 15.700
  3. Laurie Hernandez – 14.950
  4. Mykayla Skinner – 14.900
  5. Gabby Douglas – 14.833
  6. Christina Desiderio – 14.650
  7. Madison Kocian – 14.600

This list to me solidifies what the lineup should be in Rio.  Hernandez deserves to have her floor routine shown in team finals, followed by Raisman and then Biles.  Douglas would only do floor in prelims.  Kocian shows a good backup to Douglas if needed, but she shouldn’t have to do floor at the Olympics.

So here are my loose predictions for Trials

  1. Simone Biles – 16.00, 16.15
  2. Aly Raisman – 15.50, 15.75
  3. Laurie Hernandez – 14.85, 14.90
  4. MyKayla Skinner – 14.70, 14.80
  5. Gabby Douglas – 14.50, 14.75
  6. Christina Desiderio  -14.60, 14.50
  7. Madison Kocian – 14.40, 14.50

Simone and Aly are really easy to predict for as their averages and scores haven’t really changed much throughout the year.  Laurie as well, other than the low score at Jesolo she’s remained around the 14.8/14.9 mark and I’ll think she’ll keep that up at Trials.

I can guarantee that Mykayla has been drilling this floor routine in preparation for Trials, though Gabby has been focusing more on the events she could be used in team finals which are bars and beam.  So that’s the reason I think Mykayla will place ahead of her here.

For the same reasons, I think Christina will do really well here by focusing on her best event for the past two weeks, and Madison who will be focusing on bars will slip a little compared to Nationals.

 

 

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One thought on “US Women’s Olympic Trial Preview – Floor

  1. Ragan Smith was left off the list and would fall between Kocian and Desiderio if her high and low scores are dropped or if her best scores are taken.

    Like

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