The Russian Cup just concluded, leaving us with six gymnasts that are really capable of making the team. Aliya Mustafina, Maria Paseka, and Angelina Melnikova are locks. Some combination of Daria Spiridonova, Ksenia Afanasyeva, and Seda Tutkhalyan look to take the remaining two spots. However, Afanasyeva had a clean up surgery in her ankle not too long ago, and so I’m going to do an analysis on the other five and how they could stack up against other teams in Rio. This team is also what has been announced as the provisional team after the Russian Cup, however we know how those can change often. These difficulty scores are from mostly Euros, adding in some upgrades from Russian Cup like Tutkhalyan’s piked full in beam dismount. A few are from Worlds last year.
Please note, these difficulty scores are if everything is credited. At the Russian Cup, most everything they attempted was but it might not be like that internationally. One problem to note in particular is Seda Tutkhalyan’s switch ring on beam. If the judges do not credit it, she has to count her full-turn (A) and her difficulty drops four tenths.
To compare, Brazil is at 71.2, Japan is at 73.0, China is at 77.0, and the US is at 77.2. They are a good 1.5 ahead of Japan, but 2.5 behind China. This is still a relatively close margin, Russia can not afford to count more than one fall if they hope to get on the podium.